How can risk be predicted in investment scenarios?

Risk in investment scenarios can be predicted more effectively by utilizing historical information and probability analysis. This approach allows investors to assess past market behaviors, trends, and performance metrics, which can provide valuable insights into potential future risks. Historical data can help identify patterns that may indicate how specific investments or asset classes are likely to perform under various market conditions.

Probability analysis further enhances this process by quantifying the likelihood of different outcomes based on historical performance. This statistical method enables investors to make informed decisions by evaluating the risk-return profile of various options, thereby helping to establish a more reliable framework for predicting future risks.

The other options fall short because they either depend solely on subjective insights (such as consulting industry experts) or lack any structured analysis (like random guessing and intuition). While current market conditions can inform risk assessments, they should not be the only source of information. A comprehensive prediction model grounded in historical data and statistical analysis offers a much stronger foundation for understanding and managing investment risk.